专家建言下半年扩内需：提高居民收入、加力“投资于人”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a growth rate above 5% in the first half of 2024, demonstrating resilience despite external uncertainties and internal challenges [1][2][4]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2024, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2][4]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in May 2024 increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth since 2024 [1][3]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales for the first five months of 2024 was 5% [3]. External Trade - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports in the first five months was 1.3%, with exports growing by 6% [2]. - Factors contributing to export growth include increased non-U.S. exports, "export grabbing" effects, and "price-for-volume" strategies in U.S. exports [2][4]. Consumer Policies - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted retail sales, with furniture, communication, and home appliance retail sales growing over 20% [3]. - In 2024, the central and local governments allocated approximately 170 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy, expected to raise retail sales growth by over 1 percentage point [3]. Investment and Consumption Outlook - There is a need to stimulate both consumption and investment in high-tech sectors and productive services [5]. - The focus should be on stabilizing domestic consumption and investment, with an emphasis on the real estate market and capital market stability [5]. Structural Reforms - The current economic strategy emphasizes the need to shift from investment and export-driven growth to consumption and innovation-driven growth [6][7]. - Reforms in fiscal and tax systems are necessary to enhance local governments' incentives to boost consumption [7]. Monetary Policy - There is still room to lower the reserve requirement ratio, and stabilizing asset prices should be included in monetary policy considerations [7].