焦煤焦炭：6月走势分化，下半年或650-1500元震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for coking coal and coke shows a mixed trend, with a recent decline in spot coke prices despite an overall increase in futures prices for both commodities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - On June 23, the main contracts for coking coal and coke saw collective upward movement in the morning, with coking coal rising by 1.25% to 807 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 100 yuan per ton since the beginning of the month [1] - Conversely, coke prices fell by 0.22% to 1385 yuan/ton, also reflecting a 100 yuan increase since the start of June [1] - Despite the rebound in futures prices, the fourth round of price reductions for spot coke was implemented, indicating a weak market price [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major steel mills in Hebei and Shandong reduced their procurement prices for coke by 50 yuan/ton for wet quenching and 55 yuan/ton for dry quenching, effective from June 23 [1] - The national coking coal market experienced a downward trend, with prices in Shanxi's Lüliang dropping by 50 yuan/ton, while prices in Shandong's Jining remained stable [1] - The market is influenced by ample supply, high inventory pressure, and low demand, leading to a weak outlook for coking coal prices in the short term [1] Group 3: Industry Profitability - Following the price reductions for coke, the profitability of coking enterprises has returned to the breakeven point, indicating that the coking industry is nearing its profit margin limits [1] - Despite the challenges, steel mills are showing improved profitability and increased production enthusiasm, which may sustain high levels of pig iron output [1] Group 4: Future Price Expectations - Analysts suggest that the stabilization of raw coal prices and the positive performance of the futures market may reduce market sentiment towards further price reductions for coke [1] - Guotai Junan Futures predicts that the rebound in coal and coke prices in the second half of 2025 will depend on adjustments in supply and demand expectations, with future price ranges for coking coal and coke futures contracts expected to oscillate between 650 - 1050 yuan/ton and 1150 - 1500 yuan/ton, respectively [1]