霍尔木兹海峡面临“断流”危机

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, poses significant risks to global oil supply and prices, with predictions of oil prices potentially exceeding $100 per barrel if the strait is closed [3][4][7]. Oil Market Impact - Iran's parliament has reached a consensus to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt the transport of approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily, representing over 25% of global maritime oil trade in early 2024 [3][8]. - Following the announcement, Brent crude oil prices surged by 6% at the opening on June 22, reaching over $78 per barrel, the highest level since late January [3]. - Historical context shows that previous threats from Iran to close the strait have caused significant market volatility, with oil prices reaching $146 per barrel in July 2008, a 49% increase from the beginning of that year [5]. Shipping and Trade Concerns - The ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a decrease in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as shipping companies are avoiding the area due to safety concerns [6]. - Shipping organizations have advised vessels to reassess their routes and take maximum safety precautions when navigating near the strait [6]. Air Transport Disruptions - The conflict has also affected air travel, with airlines rerouting flights to avoid the Middle Eastern airspace, resulting in longer flight times and increased fuel costs [9]. - Major airlines, including Air France-KLM and British Airways, have canceled flights to and from the region due to safety assessments [9][10]. Strategic Considerations - Experts suggest that while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have severe implications for global oil prices and supply, it is not the most favorable option for Iran, as it would also hinder its own oil exports [7][8].