美联储理事鲍曼：支持最早7月降息 因为劳动力市场的风险可能上升

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated support for a potential interest rate cut as early as July if inflation pressures remain controlled, citing risks in the labor market and stable inflation trends towards the Fed's 2% target [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, which is considered above the neutral rate that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity [1] - Bowman emphasized the need to consider adjusting the policy rate in light of recent weak consumer spending and signs of labor market fragility [1][4] Group 2: Trade Policy Impact - Bowman noted that recent trade policies, including tariffs, have not yet shown a significant impact on economic data, suggesting that their effects may be delayed and less severe than initially expected [1][2] - The ongoing trade and tariff negotiations have significantly reduced risks in the economic environment [1] Group 3: Regulatory Oversight - As Vice Chair responsible for regulation, Bowman warned that the current leverage ratio regulations may have unintended consequences in the market, particularly affecting trading activities in the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market [4] - She called for a reassessment of the capital buffer mechanism known as the "supplementary leverage ratio" and indicated that simple reforms could enhance the resilience of the Treasury market during stress events [4] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Bowman's comments, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.57%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.42%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.55% [6] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by over 5.5 basis points, reaching below 4.32%, while the two-year Treasury yield dropped nearly 4 basis points, approaching 3.85% [6]