国际油价单日暴涨%，布伦特原油破美元，分析师：战争溢价持续

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant fluctuations in international oil prices have been driven primarily by geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, which has raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Surge - On June 13, a large-scale airstrike by Israel on Iran led to a surge in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures experiencing intraday gains exceeding 13%, marking the largest single-day increase in over three years [1]. - By June 16, Brent crude oil prices surpassed the $80 per barrel mark, closing at $80.34 [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The primary driver of the recent oil price increase is attributed to geopolitical risks, particularly the potential impact on oil supply from Iran, a significant oil-producing nation [3]. - The weaker U.S. dollar, influenced by lower-than-expected CPI data in May, has also contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices [3]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Analysts have differing views on the future trajectory of oil prices. Some suggest that if Iran's oil supply is severely affected or if the conflict spreads to other oil-producing countries, prices could rise significantly, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel for Brent crude [5]. - Conversely, others point out that major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have approximately 3 million barrels per day of spare capacity, which could limit the extent of price increases in times of crisis [5]. - Overall, the future of international oil prices will be influenced by a variety of factors, with geopolitical developments in the Middle East being a key area to monitor [5].