Founder Securities(SH:601901) 智通财经网·2025-06-23 23:40Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates that the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) are primarily due to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) large-scale liquidity injections rather than passive depreciation caused by a strengthening US dollar [1][2]. Currency Fluctuations - Since May, the HKD has experienced increased volatility, touching the weak side of the peg. As of June 23, the USD/HKD exchange rate was 7.85, a depreciation of 1.3% from the 7.75 high in early May [2]. - The HKMA typically maintains the USD/HKD exchange rate within the 7.75-7.85 range, intervening by injecting or absorbing liquidity as needed. The recent fluctuations were not due to a strengthening USD but rather the HKMA's proactive liquidity measures [2][3]. Market Concerns - Current market concerns include whether the HKMA will tighten liquidity again after the HKD touches the weak side of the peg, which historically has had a limited impact on the market [3]. - Another concern is whether low HIBOR rates will lead to significant capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market. However, foreign capital has not been the main source of incremental funds for the market in recent years, and southbound capital continues to flow into Hong Kong stocks [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current uptrend in the Hong Kong stock market is likely to continue, driven by strong economic fundamentals and a series of favorable policies. The market's risk appetite has significantly improved [4]. - Southbound capital is increasingly flowing into core assets in the Hong Kong market, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and new consumption, which are aligned with emerging industry trends and have a degree of scarcity [4].