“特朗普提名”的美联储副主席发声：支持最早7月降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials are signaling support for a potential interest rate cut as early as July, with a focus on maintaining a healthy labor market and controlled inflation [1][2][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman expressed support for a rate cut if inflation remains controlled, indicating a shift in her previous focus on inflation concerns [1][4]. - Another Federal Reserve official, Waller, also indicated he might support a rate cut in July due to concerns about a weakening labor market [1][7]. - The recent comments from Bowman and Waller mark a significant change in the Federal Reserve's stance, particularly as they were both appointed during Trump's first term [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The current benchmark interest rate is maintained at 4.25% to 4.5%, which is considered above the neutral rate that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity [2]. - Economic data shows that tariffs and other policies have not yet had a significant impact on the economy, with strong labor market and inflation data persisting [3][4]. - Following Bowman's comments, major stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq saw increases, indicating positive market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29-30 is currently estimated at 23%, while the probability for a cut in September is around 78% [4]. - The discussions around interest rate cuts are influenced by President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates to reduce the financing costs of the growing national debt [7]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - Bowman highlighted the need to reassess the current leverage ratio regulations, which may have unintended consequences on market activities, particularly in the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market [8][9]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to discuss potential modifications to leverage ratio rules, aiming to improve market resilience during stress events [8].