全球视野看纯苯市场供需格局及贸易流向

Supply Situation - Global benzene production capacity has shown a distinct pattern of slow growth followed by rapid expansion, with an average annual growth rate of less than 2% from 2015 to 2019, increasing to 5% from 2020 to 2024, resulting in a capacity increase from 69.3 million tons per year to 83.3 million tons per year, a 20% increase. However, growth momentum has begun to slow down entering 2024 [1] - North America and Western Europe rank second and third in global benzene production capacity, each exceeding 10 million tons and accounting for approximately 12% of global capacity. Refining companies in these regions have faced constraints due to policy impacts and demand shrinkage, leading to the gradual elimination of some facilities [1] - Northeast Asia dominates global benzene production capacity, with an estimated capacity of 42.2 million tons per year by the end of 2024, accounting for 50.7% of global capacity, with China contributing 25.73 million tons per year [1] Demand Situation - Global benzene demand has consistently grown since 2015, with a notable decline only in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2020 to 2024, global benzene consumption is projected to increase from 50.17 million tons per year to 65.20 million tons per year, a total growth of 30%, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 10% in 2023 [7] - The primary demand regions for benzene are Northeast Asia, North America, and Western Europe, with their respective demand shares being 60%, 13%, and 10% by the end of 2024. In Northeast Asia, benzene consumption is expected to rise from 27 million tons in 2020 to 39.2 million tons in 2024, increasing its global share from 54% to 60% [7] - The largest application of benzene globally is for the production of styrene, accounting for 49% of usage, followed by isopropylbenzene at 21% [8] Trade Flow - In 2024, the global benzene trade flow has not changed directionally compared to the past five years, although some regional circulation volumes have shifted. The most active trade involves Asian exports to China and arbitrage between Northeast Asia and North America [10] - Northeast Asia is a key hub for benzene trade, with significant intra-regional trade among China, South Korea, and Japan. North America is a net importing region, primarily sourcing imports from Northeast Asia [12] China Trade Dynamics - China is the largest consumer and importer of benzene globally, with imports rising steadily from 2020 to 2024. The majority of imports come from neighboring Asian countries, with around one million tons entering Jiangsu for redistribution to downstream users [13] - From 2015 to 2018, China's benzene imports grew from 1.205 million tons to 2.57 million tons, with the import dependency rising from 13.3% to 23.7%. This increase was driven by domestic demand outpacing local production growth [14] - In 2019, imports dropped to 1.939 million tons, a 24.6% decrease, due to increased domestic production capacity and reduced international prices [15] - From 2020 to 2024, imports are expected to exceed 4.2 million tons, with an average annual growth rate over 20%, driven by strong domestic demand and increased exports from South Korea [17] Import Characteristics - China's benzene imports are highly reliant on neighboring Asian countries, with South Korea being the largest supplier, followed by Brunei, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore [19] - In 2024, Zhejiang province is projected to import 1.5262 million tons, accounting for 35.4% of national imports, followed by Shandong and Shanghai [22][23]