鲍威尔今明两天将迎国会“烤问”，为利率按兵不动立场辩护

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will defend the decision to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time during congressional hearings this week, amidst ongoing pressure from former President Trump for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell is expected to reiterate that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to wait for more economic data before considering any rate changes, emphasizing the need for caution [2][3]. - Economists predict that the core inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve may have only risen by 0.1% for the third consecutive month in May, marking the mildest inflation performance since 2020 [2][3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of tariffs and interest rate policy are highlighted, with two governors indicating potential support for a rate cut in July [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Conflict Impact - Powell is likely to face questions regarding the economic implications of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, especially after the U.S. engaged directly in the conflict [3]. - The price of WTI crude oil initially surged above $78 but later fell back to around $66, reflecting investor concerns about supply risks [3]. - Powell has indicated that while energy prices may rise during Middle Eastern turmoil, such fluctuations typically do not have lasting effects on inflation [3]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Independence - Republican lawmakers are expected to pressure Powell for clear reasoning behind the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, although not all Republicans will adopt a confrontational approach [5][6]. - Some Democratic lawmakers may support Powell, warning that the Federal Reserve's independence is under threat from Republican pressures [6]. - Powell is anticipated to maintain a calm demeanor during the hearings, emphasizing that Federal Open Market Committee decisions are based on careful, objective analysis [6]. Group 4: Banking Regulation Agenda - Observers will assess Powell's views on ongoing regulatory changes, as the White House pushes for a relaxation of regulations [7]. - The Federal Reserve is considering proposals to lower the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, a rule introduced in 2008 that requires banks to hold a certain amount of capital relative to their assets [7]. - Powell may also need to address a proposal from Senator Ted Cruz to prohibit the Federal Reserve from paying interest on bank reserves, which could impact the Fed's ability to control short-term interest rates [7].