LJZ(SH:600663) Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-06-24 02:07Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 430.8 billion, 261.8 billion, and 162 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 135.1 billion, 124.3 billion, and 63.6 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 122.5 billion, with a net financing amount of -7.2 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 392.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 107.3 billion [1] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 0.9 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Short-term interest rates in the bond market decreased while long-term rates fluctuated, influenced by factors such as liquidity, the Lujiazui conference, institutional behaviors, and geopolitical conflicts [2] Liquidity Tracking - Last week, there was a net injection through OMO, while MLF matured and was withdrawn, with the central bank conducting buyback operations to support the liquidity during the tax period [3] - The R001 and R007 rates decreased by 1.4 basis points and increased by 1 basis point respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic data for May showed stable production, rising consumption, and declining investment, with structural concerns remaining [4] - High-frequency data indicated a month-on-month decline in production, a decrease in both domestic and external consumption, and price differentiation in the production and residential sectors, with the Middle East conflict driving oil prices significantly higher [4] Overseas Market - The Federal Reserve's June FOMC statement was slightly hawkish, but U.S. consumption and production data were disappointing, exacerbating risk aversion in overseas markets [5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, down 3 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The A-share market experienced a decline in most broad-based indices due to capital outflows from new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as the impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict [6] - Specifically, the Wind All A index fell by 1.07%, the Wind Micro-Cap index dropped by 2.18%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.45%, and the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.55% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.22 trillion, down 156.644 billion week-on-week [6] - As of June 19, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 1,809.167 billion, an increase of 0.188 billion from June 12 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favorable to the bond market are gradually increasing in the second half of the year, with bond yields likely to face upward pressure [7] - The 10-year government bond yield has already reflected macro expectations to some extent, and short-term long-end rates are unlikely to present significant excess opportunities in the near term [7] - Short-term rates are still some distance from previous lows, and banks are balancing duration pressures, which may accumulate buying power for short-term bonds [7] - The logic of under-allocation in credit bonds continues, with a strategy prioritizing coupon collection in the short term [7] - In the convertible bond market, supply-demand conflicts persist, and liquidity remains relatively loose, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, making core varieties scarcer [7] - The convertible bond index has reached the upper range of its fluctuation zone, and opportunities in the index require catalysts, necessitating a focus on switching core varieties and monitoring for trading opportunities driven by sentiment [7]