①特朗普：将对俄罗斯征收100%关税向北约提供最先进的武器装备以支持乌克兰 ④美股财报季即将开锣：预期两年最弱科技股AI支出成亮点 特朗普周一在会见北约秘书长吕特时称，如果无法在50天内达成协议结束俄乌冲突，美国将对俄罗斯实 施100%的关税。受此影响，国际油价直线跳水。截至收盘，全球基准9月布伦特原油期货下跌1.63%， 报69.21美元/桶。WTI 8月合约下跌2.15%，报66.98美元/桶。市场也密切关注中印等主要俄罗斯原油买 家的反应。目前中国和印度仍为俄罗斯原油的主要出口对象。同时，特朗普表示美国将向北约提供最先 进的武器装备，费用由北约盟国承担。他还宣布将宣布一项针对乌克兰的新军援计划，预计将包括对乌 提供进攻性武器。 法国里昂商学院管理实践教授李徽徽：特朗普对俄宣布100%关税及大幅军事援助乌克兰的立场转向， 表明其外交政策在竞选压力与盟友协调下趋于"强硬现实主义"。短期内，市场对地缘政治升级的担忧将 推高避险情绪，但因援助费用由盟友承担，美元和美债影响有限。原油下跌源自市场对俄出口未必实质 受限的预期，但中期来看，若俄罗斯进一步被排挤出全球能源体系，将对全球油气供需格局形成扰动， 对欧洲能源 ...

①特朗普：8月对欧盟和墨西哥征30%关税 市场关注下周二CPI数据 特朗普周末宣布将从8月1日起对欧盟和墨西哥征收30%的关税。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩发表声明称， 欧盟仍然准备继续努力，在8月1日前达成协议，同时也将采取一切必要措施维护欧盟的利益，包括在必 要时采取相称的反制措施。摩根士丹利首席美股策略师兼首席投资官Mike Wilson警告称，特朗普的关 税政策可能在第三季度对市场产生影响，企业利润将受冲击，尤其是规模较小的企业；投资者对关税闹 剧的耐心正在耗尽，股市波动性加大，通胀可能在第三季度开始攀升，打击市场对降息的预期。美国6 月CPI数据将在周二发布，核心CPI环比增速料升至0.3%，为1月以来最高。市场预计关税影响将显现， 商品价格涨幅加速，服务业难以抵消。若通胀重新加速，美债收益率可能上升，降息预期减少，股市或 受影响。 评论员许戈：特朗普上周宣布关税的最后期限延迟到8月1日，又继续对各国极限施压，一方面想让这些 协议尽快落地，一方面通过这种方式，在谈判中获取更多对自己有利的筹码。目前已经谈下来的是越南 与英国，欧盟仍是美国最重要的谈判对手。特朗普威胁，若8月1日前未达成协议，将对欧盟商品征收 ...

Group 1: Copper Tariff Impact - The proposed 50% import tariff on copper by the Trump administration has led to a surge in COMEX copper prices, prompting Morgan Stanley to raise the target price for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) from $42 to $56, citing operational excellence and low-cost advantages at the Grasberg mine [2] - A $0.1 increase in copper price per pound could result in an annual EBITDA and operating cash flow increase of $135 million for Freeport-McMoRan [2] - Concerns arise that the copper tariff will elevate U.S. copper prices, increasing costs in construction, automotive, and electronics sectors, with significant implications for the AI industry due to copper's critical role in data centers [2][3] Group 2: Spotify's Growth and AI Integration - Barclays has raised Spotify's target price from $650 to $800, with other institutions also increasing their target prices, reflecting the platform's benefits from changes in Apple's App Store rules and AI-driven personalization [4] - Spotify's stock has risen over 58% this year, driven by AI technologies that enhance user experience through features like AI Playlist and AI DJ, leading to strong user growth with 678 million monthly active users and 268 million paid subscribers [4][5] - The diversification of Spotify's content ecosystem, including music, podcasts, and audiobooks, has further propelled its rapid growth [5] Group 3: Grok 4 AI Model Launch - Elon Musk announced the launch of Grok 4, touted as the world's strongest AI model, which will be integrated into Tesla vehicles and is expected to enhance capabilities in logic reasoning and spatial simulation [6][7] - Grok 4 has shown superior performance in academic and application fields, achieving full marks in the AIME 25 and a 27% accuracy rate in the Humanity's Last Exam, outperforming competitors like OpenAI and Google [7] - The subscription fee for Grok 4 is set at $30 per month, with a more advanced version available for $300 per month, indicating a clear monetization strategy [7] Group 4: Meta's AI Talent Acquisition and Smart Glasses Investment - Meta has offered over $200 million in compensation to attract top AI talent, including former Apple AI team leader, indicating a competitive landscape for AI expertise [8][9] - Meta's $3.5 billion investment in EssilorLuxottica for a stake in smart glasses highlights its commitment to enhancing its presence in the smart eyewear market, which is projected to grow significantly [9] - The smart glasses market is expected to expand from $1.93 billion in 2024 to $8.26 billion by 2030, driven by innovations in AI and fashion [9] Group 5: MP Materials and U.S. Defense Investment - MP Materials has entered a partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense, receiving a $400 million investment to accelerate the establishment of a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain [10] - The company plans to build a second magnet manufacturing facility, expected to produce 10,000 tons annually by 2028, which is crucial for military applications [10] - The recent surge in MP Materials' stock price by 50.78% reflects market optimism regarding U.S. rare earth policies and supply chain security [10]

广发证券指出，2025年下半年地产或将具备强拐点机会。从2023年定调缓和，到2024年"止跌回稳"，目 前市场价格表现再一次推进到了重大政策表态的临界点。市场交易表现大幅好转，回归消费性需 求，"好房子"也得到了认可。但资产价格下跌所导致的风险传导问题仍然存在，未来一年或将迎来本轮 地产下行期最重要的拐点窗口。 估值端来看，以央国企、优质房企为代表的龙头地产当前仍处估值低位。以地产ETF（159707）标的指 数为例，中证800地产指数最新PB估值仅为0.7倍，处近10年约13%分位点，估值低位特征明显，修复空 间或较大。行业集中度加速提升，头部房企有望凭借"好信用、好城市、好产品"策略展现韧性，建议持 续关注。 布局央国企及优质房企，建议重点关注地产ETF（159707）。资料显示，地产ETF（159707）跟踪中证 800地产指数，汇集市场13只头部优质房企，在投资方向上具有明显的头部集中度优势，前十大成份股 周四（7月10日），龙头地产板块久违大涨，代表A股龙头地产行情的中证800地产指数大涨超3%，成 份股全线飘红。其中，绿地控股涨停，新城控股涨超7%，衢州发展、滨江集团涨超5%，陆家嘴、招商 蛇口 ...

2025年7月8日，保险行业迎来了第十三个"7·8全国保险公众宣传日"活动。为响应行业号召，深入践 行"爱和责任 保险让生活更美好"的年度主题，陆家嘴国泰人寿在国家金融监督管理总局和中国保险行 业协会的指导下，组织全国各分公司和分支机构开展了一系列内涵丰富的宣传活动。从南粤大地到齐鲁 沃土，从东海之滨到中原腹地，公司上下不仅以暖心服务普及保险知识，还通过形式多样的创新活动传 递行业正能量，以实际行动诠释保险如何守护美好生活。 广东：台企精准对接，赋能风险管理 江苏：开展红色文旅，传承使命初心 江苏分公司结合七一建党节，在南通三一八斗争纪念基地、泰州双拥广场、常州文化宫广场等地组织开 展健步走、金融反诈宣传等活动，并穿插红色故事宣讲、红歌演唱等内容，将保险宣传与红色文化深度 融合，激发行业使命感，以"红色基因"赋能保险责任，彰显保险业服务民生的初心。 广东分公司精准定位，借力广州市黄埔区台协平台，向台资企业代表开展专题宣讲。活动聚焦保险在企 业风险管理、员工福利保障中的核心价值，结合"传播幸福 散播爱"的企业使命，通过真实案例解析不 同险种功能，传递保险正能量，增进台资企业对保险功能与价值的理解。 厦门：社区防 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook and Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 index target again, expecting a market boost from Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong fundamentals of large stocks, with new target levels of 6400, 6600, and 6900 points for 3, 6, and 12 months respectively [1] - Bank of America also increased its year-end S&P 500 target to 6300 points, with a 12-month target of 6600 points [1] - UBS reports that the current bull market in U.S. stocks, which began in October 2022, has lasted 33 months, significantly exceeding the average lifecycle of 1105 days for long-term bull markets [1] Group 2: Sector Performance and Recommendations - Goldman Sachs recommends overweight positions in software and services, materials, utilities, media and entertainment, and real estate sectors [1] - The market is currently at a convergence of technological revolution benefits and geopolitical order restructuring, requiring investors to balance strategic stability with tactical flexibility [1] Group 3: Commodity and Supply Chain Insights - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, which led to a significant spike in U.S. copper prices, with potential benefits for domestic copper producers like Freeport-McMoRan [3][4] - PwC warns that by 2035, 32% of global chip production capacity may be affected by copper supply disruptions due to climate change, with Chile facing significant production risks [3] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - UBS has given GE Vernova a "buy" rating with a target price of $614, citing strong profit growth potential driven by increased electricity demand from AI data centers [5][6] - Nvidia's stock reached a new high, with demand for its B200 chips exceeding supply, and Citigroup raised Nvidia's target price to $190, anticipating significant revenue growth from AI infrastructure [7][8] Group 5: E-commerce Trends - Adobe forecasts that Amazon's Prime Day sales will reach a record $23.8 billion, a 28.4% increase year-over-year, with mobile shopping expected to account for 52.5% of sales [9] - The extended sales window and financial innovations like "buy now, pay later" are expected to activate purchasing power among lower-income groups [9]

Core Points - The 2025 International Low Altitude Economy Expo will be held in Shanghai from July 23 to 26, featuring nearly 300 global companies and showcasing cutting-edge achievements in drones and electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) [1] - The expo will highlight 19 global debuts and 25 national debuts of new products [1] Group 1 - The exhibition will cover various low-altitude products and solutions in areas such as public safety, emergency firefighting, aerial surveying, agricultural protection, and cluster performances, demonstrating how low-altitude economy can enhance urban governance modernization and empower various industries [3] - DJI will showcase an unmanned airport management solution that improves efficiency and capabilities in power inspection, public safety, and urban management [3] - The event will include a national drone indoor competition and selection for the Chinese drone soccer national team, providing a platform for drone enthusiasts to witness high-level competitions [3][4] Group 2 - The expo aims to popularize aviation knowledge through competitive events, creating an immersive platform for technology interaction and targeting youth with hands-on activities to stimulate scientific interest and innovative thinking [4] - The event will feature innovative consumer experiences, including a low-altitude carnival at Longhua Airport and a themed market at Hongqiao Tiandi, showcasing new consumption scenarios in the low-altitude economy [4] - A drone light show will be held along the Huangpu River, along with special sightseeing flights, integrating technological aesthetics with cultural tourism consumption [4]

星展银行邓志坚：经济学没有明确定义滞胀的标准。经济周期经常变化，表现形式不一，衡量的数据自 然也不相同。目前美国经济增长明显疲软，而CPI年率也有回升迹象。如果定义滞胀是"衰退+高通 胀"，那么美国现状并不符合。如果要判断未来出现滞胀的可能性，那么美国首先要确定处于衰退状 态。而且即便美国宏观数据疲软，但企业盈利却十分出色，上季度标普500企业盈利同比增长13%。现 阶段投资者不应恐慌，可精选科技和医疗板块；但不能贪婪，可以继续保持债券持仓以平衡资产风险。 ①美加征关税延期至8月1日 14国税率出台美股美债遭抛售新兴市场货币创4月来最大跌幅 特朗普签署行政令，将关税暂停期从7月9日延长至8月1日，并宣布14国新税率，其中日本、韩国、哈萨 克斯坦和马来西亚、突尼斯各征25%；南非、波黑各征30%，老挝和缅甸各征40%，印尼征32%，孟加 拉国、塞尔维亚各征35%，柬埔寨和泰国各征36%。周一美股收跌，道指跌近400点。10年期美债收益 率一度上行近7个基点，美元反弹至两周高点，今天早盘回落。现货黄金V形反转、一度跌破3300美元 关口，目前交投在3336美元附近；铜价连续第三日下挫。昨天，亚洲股市多数下跌，新兴 ...

Group 1: Economic and Fiscal Implications - The "Big and Beautiful" Act signed by Trump includes tax cuts and significant spending measures, projecting a $4 trillion tax reduction and a $1.5 trillion spending cut over the next decade [1] - The Act is expected to increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next ten years, raising concerns about fiscal deficits and debt [1][2] - The Act is anticipated to create a super loose fiscal stimulus environment, potentially benefiting the economy and stock market liquidity, while negatively impacting U.S. debt and the dollar [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The Act is likely to push up U.S. Treasury yields and weaken the dollar, with increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - Analysts suggest that the Act may lead to a stronger recovery for the U.S. economy, although the extent remains uncertain [2] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 6850 points within 12 months, despite concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Impacts - The Act provides significant tax incentives and funding support for sectors such as chip manufacturers, energy companies, defense contractors, and real estate developers, while cutting subsidies for electric vehicles and renewable energy projects [1] - Traditional energy and military sectors are expected to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges [2] - The German stock market has shown strong performance, with military procurement plans potentially benefiting key defense manufacturers [5][6] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, exceeding market expectations, which may lead to a global oversupply risk and downward pressure on oil prices [7][8] - The strategy shift from limiting supply to increasing production aims to reclaim market share lost to U.S. shale oil [8] Group 5: AI Chip Supply Chain Growth - The global ASIC supply chain is entering a growth cycle driven by the widespread adoption of AI ASIC chips by cloud service providers like Google and Amazon [9] - Companies such as MPI, Aspeed, and Alchip are expected to benefit significantly from this trend, with MPI planning to double its production capacity [9][10]

Group 1: US Employment Data - US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 106,000 and the previous value of 139,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of better-than-expected results [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market despite hiring uncertainties [1] - Following the non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut diminished significantly, with the probability dropping from 98% to approximately 80% [1] Group 2: Japan Wage Negotiations - Japan's average wage increase for the fiscal year 2025 reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, with small enterprises seeing a growth of 4.65% [2] - The wage growth reflects a tight labor market, potentially supporting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, although persistent inflation pressures may limit consumer spending and corporate profit margins [2] - Global investors are reducing long positions in the yen due to various short-term challenges, including slow progress on US-Japan trade agreements and uncertainties surrounding Japan's elections [2] Group 3: US Banking Sector - All 22 banks passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.6%, significantly above the 4.5% regulatory requirement [3] - Major banks announced increased dividends and stock buyback plans, with Goldman Sachs raising its dividend by 33% to $4 per share, reflecting its strong capital position [3][4] - The banking sector's performance has led to record highs in bank stock prices, with Goldman Sachs' market capitalization surpassing $220 billion [4] Group 4: EDA Software Market - The US government lifted export restrictions on three major chip design software suppliers: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens, allowing them to fully resume services to Chinese clients [5] - These three companies dominate the EDA market, holding a combined market share of 82% in China, with Synopsys at 32%, Cadence at 30%, and Siemens at 13% [5] - Following the announcement, Cadence and Synopsys saw stock price increases of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with their combined market capitalization exceeding $170 billion [5] Group 5: Oracle and OpenAI Partnership - OpenAI has agreed to lease significant computing power from Oracle, totaling approximately 4.5 gigawatts, which is enough to power millions of American homes [6] - Oracle's stock price rose over 3%, reaching a new high of $237.03, as the company continues to expand its cloud computing business, particularly targeting AI clients [6][7] - The partnership is part of a larger $500 billion "Star Gate" initiative involving SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI, aimed at enhancing cloud computing capabilities [6]