万腾外汇：美国 6 月消费者信心指数回升 美股涨黄金跌现分化行情

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to 60.5 in June, surpassing market expectations of 58.0, ending a five-month decline and signaling greater economic resilience than anticipated [1][3] - The rebound in consumer confidence is primarily driven by improved evaluations of the current job market and the gradual absorption of tariff impacts, which are providing support for consumer spending [1][3] Group 2 - Financial markets reacted swiftly to the data, with major U.S. stock indices continuing to rise; the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.72%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.81%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.93% [4] - The rise in consumer confidence is interpreted as a sign that domestic demand may help the economy avoid recession, with technology and discretionary consumer sectors leading the gains [4] Group 3 - Despite the current rebound in consumer confidence, the market remains cautious about the U.S. economic outlook, with key data such as the FHFA house price index and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index yet to be released [5] - Goldman Sachs suggests that the rebound in consumer confidence may be temporary, citing rising credit card debt default rates and the resumption of student loan repayments as potential pressures on future consumer spending [5] Group 4 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report and core PCE data will be critical in determining whether the improvement in consumer confidence can be sustained [7] - If employment growth slows or inflation falls more than expected, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to signal clearer interest rate cuts, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]