黄金基金ETF（518800）连续4日净流入额超3亿元，机构称地缘风险支撑金价偏强

Group 1 - The long-term trend of gold spot prices (Au99.99 contract) is influenced by the weakening of the US dollar credit and inflation expectations, with a sustained inflation rate above 2% being bullish for gold prices [1] - In the medium term, during the "overheating → stagflation" phase, gold prices are likely to rise, while in the "recession → recovery" phase, gold may face downward pressure; aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could lead to a more than 20% pullback in London gold prices [1] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to US fiscal policies or easing geopolitical tensions, potentially causing a 5%-10% correction in gold prices, while tightening fiscal policies or increasing debt risks would be bullish for gold [1] Group 2 - The current capacity utilization rates in industries such as steel and non-ferrous metals in China are reasonable, which has a neutral impact on gold prices [1] - If the US dollar credit continues to weaken, gold may maintain low volatility, with recommendations to accumulate positions during a 5%-10% pullback and consider increasing holdings near a 15% decline [1] - The gold ETF tracks the gold spot (Au99.99 contract) index, reflecting the trading prices of pure gold and representing the domestic gold spot market price trends, characterized by high liquidity and transparency [1]