万腾外汇：黄金为何在美联储降息前夜飙升？三大市场信号揭示方向

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, breaking the $2400 per ounce mark, is attributed to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, influenced by declining inflation data and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, down 1.8 percentage points from last year's peak, while the GDPNow model predicts a 1.9% growth rate for Q2 [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July has risen to 92%, with expectations of a total cut of 75 basis points by year-end [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury's real yield has decreased from 2.5% in March to 1.8%, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Rising tensions in the Persian Gulf, particularly threats from Iran, have activated safe-haven buying in gold, with spot gold premiums soaring by 40% and physical gold demand in the Middle East increasing by 35% year-on-year [4]. - The current geopolitical climate mirrors the market response during the 2018 U.S.-Iran standoff, where gold prices rose significantly [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Global investors have reduced their equity allocations to the lowest level since May 2020, while gold holdings have reached a historical high of 12% [4]. - The SPDR Gold Trust's holdings surpassed 1300 tons, a 230-ton increase since the beginning of the year, indicating strong institutional interest [5]. - Technical analysis shows that gold's price breakout at $2400 is significant, with a 2.3% daily increase and trading volume significantly above the 30-day average [6]. Group 4: Cross-Market Interactions - On the day gold surpassed $2400, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 5 basis points, indicating a strong negative correlation with gold [7]. - This cross-market interaction suggests a reinforcing safe-haven chain, contrasting with market reactions during previous rate hikes [7]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The breakthrough of the $2400 mark signifies a redefinition of asset pricing logic in the post-easing era, highlighting gold's strategic value amid monetary policy shifts and geopolitical risks [9]. - Historical precedents indicate that significant price movements in gold often precede new asset allocation trends, as seen after the 2008 financial crisis [9].