Juno markets官网：安联推迟美联储降息预期至12月通胀与经济博弈

Core Insights - Allianz Group has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from October to December 2025, reflecting complexities in the U.S. economy between persistent inflation and resilient growth [1][2] - The May U.S. CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% but a month-on-month slowdown of 0.1%, indicating potential inflationary pressures despite a temporary cooling [1][2] - The labor market remains strong, with low unemployment rates, creating a paradox where robust employment supports consumption while raising concerns about a wage-inflation spiral [2][3] Economic Indicators - The forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2025 has been revised down to 1.4%, yet corporate earnings resilience and consumer confidence remain in the expansion zone [3] - The Federal Reserve has raised its core PCE forecast for 2025 to 3.1%, aligning with Allianz's view on the risks of transitory shocks evolving into persistent inflation [2][3] Market Reactions - Following Allianz's adjustment, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.27%, while the euro fell to 1.1490, indicating market pricing for a later-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased to 4.1%, reflecting a rare combination of a strong dollar and rising bond prices amid economic slowdown concerns [3][4] Asset Allocation - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 23 tons in the third week of June, contrasting sharply with the previous surge when gold prices exceeded $2400 [4] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have risen from 35% to 58% over the past month, suggesting potential for further adjustments in market pricing [4][5] Global Policy Implications - Allianz's forecast adjustment is triggering global policy ripple effects, with the interest rate differential between the Eurozone and the U.S. widening to 225 basis points following the European Central Bank's eighth rate cut [4][5] - Emerging markets are experiencing increased capital flow uncertainty, with significant foreign capital outflows from Brazil and India, totaling $4.7 billion, the highest since November 2024 [4][5] Structural Risks - The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is leading to a reconfiguration of global asset pricing models, particularly in light of potential new tariff policies from the U.S. government [5] - The tension between inflation targets and economic realities is compressing the Federal Reserve's policy space, highlighting structural risks that may be obscured by current economic resilience [5]