山海：消息面主导黄金涨跌，但趋势还是维持多头不变！

Market Overview - The geopolitical situation has shifted dramatically with Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion [2][4] - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, dropping from a high of 3394 to a low of 3333, reflecting a decline of over $60 [2][4] - The market sentiment around gold is currently mixed, with a focus on the key resistance level at 3405, which if not breached, suggests a range-bound trading environment [4] Gold and Silver Analysis - Gold opened at 3396 but faced a sharp decline due to the latest news, hitting a low of 3333, which is the lowest point since last week [4] - The effective support level for gold is at 3332, with potential further declines to 3280 if this level is breached [4] - Silver has shown resilience, maintaining support at 35.5, and is expected to rebound from this level, with a target of 37 for short positions [5][6] Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices initially rose, with Shanghai gold reaching a high of 792, but subsequently fell back to the starting point due to market news [5] - The outlook for domestic gold remains bullish with a target of 800 for Shanghai gold and 795 for Rongtong gold, contingent on market performance this week [5] - Domestic silver has shown limited movement, with a focus on maintaining positions above 35.5 for potential rebounds [6] Oil Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices have dropped significantly to around 66 after peaking near 78, influenced by market news and risk sentiment [6] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with expectations of a rebound towards 70, while domestic fuel oil is also expected to trend upwards after recent adjustments [6]