TSMC(US:TSM) 智通财经网·2025-06-24 04:24Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC and raises the target price from NT$1,180 to NT$1,200, highlighting the company's growth potential driven by capacity expansion, financial forecasts, and industry trends [1][5] Group 1: Capacity Expansion and Strategic Positioning - TSMC's annual capacity is projected to reach 36 million 8-inch equivalent wafers by the end of 2023, with a production network spanning Taiwan and overseas [1] - The company operates four 12-inch and four 8-inch fabs in Taiwan, along with a 12-inch fab and two 8-inch fabs in the U.S. and China, ensuring supply chain stability and geopolitical risk mitigation [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - UBS raises TSMC's 2025 revenue growth forecast from 25% to 29%, with capital expenditure expectations adjusted to a range of $40 billion to $42 billion, driven by surging cloud AI demand and advanced process capacity [2] - The gross margin is expected to remain high at 57.0%, close to the historical peak of 58.8% in the previous quarter, with long-term EPS growth rate estimates increased from 16% to 18% [2] Group 3: AI Demand and Packaging Technology - Despite a downward revision in smartphone and PC shipment forecasts, optimism remains for cloud AI chip demand, with TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity expected to reach 70,000 pieces per month by the end of 2025 and 100,000 pieces by the end of 2026, a 30% increase from previous plans [3] - This expansion is anticipated to alleviate supply concerns for high-end AI chips and boost the revenue share from packaging services [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - TSMC is expected to maintain a gross margin of 55.5% to 56.5% from Q3 2025 to 2026, significantly above market consensus of 53% to 55%, due to strategic price adjustments and supply chain management [3] - Price increases for N5 and N3 wafers are planned, with mobile products seeing a 3%-5% increase and HPC products up by 10% [3] Group 5: Capital Expenditure Strategy - TSMC plans to increase capital expenditure for N2 process and overseas expansion, with external capital expenditure expected to reach $40 billion in 2025, a 5% increase from previous plans [4] - This strategy aims to reinforce TSMC's technological leadership and prepare for the restructuring of the global semiconductor supply chain [4] Group 6: Valuation and Investment Recommendation - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, raising the 12-month target price to NT$1,200 based on stronger AI demand and cost management capabilities [5] - The current stock price of NT$1,055 corresponds to a 2025 P/E ratio of only 22 times, significantly lower than its long-term growth expectations, making TSMC a compelling choice for investors seeking core assets in the semiconductor industry [5]