Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global economy is expected to enter a slowdown phase in the second half of 2025, with the most significant deceleration occurring in the United States [2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in Q4 of this year and continue with reductions of 50 to 75 basis points in 2026 [1] - The U.S. stock market is not expected to enter a bear market this year, but a decline is likely in Q3, with annual earnings forecasts revised down from 14.1% to below 9% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to drop below 1% in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth estimate of approximately 1.35% [2] - The impact of trade wars has led to a temporary boost in U.S. economic performance in the first half of the year, but this is expected to fade, resulting in weaker economic data [2] - Investment strategies recommended include focusing on defensive and high-quality stocks, as well as high-quality investment-grade corporate bonds, while waiting for economic stabilization before shifting to non-investment-grade bonds [1][2]
凯基：美股今年出现熊市几率不高 建议投资防御性和优质股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-24 05:59