山西汾酒(600809)：腰部产品放量 业绩稳健增长

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year for the same period [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, and a net profit of 2.940 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.36% year-on-year [1] Product Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the sales revenue of mid-to-high-end liquor reached 22.614 billion yuan, growing by 14.26% year-on-year, while other liquor categories generated 8.638 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 26.87% [2] - In Q3 2024, the sales revenue for mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories were 6.188 billion yuan and 2.405 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.74% and 25.65% [2] - The Qinghua series showed a recovery in growth, and the increase in sales of the glass Fen product line contributed to the rapid growth of other liquor categories [2] Sales Channels - In the first three quarters of 2024, direct sales (group purchases) generated 0.179 billion yuan, a decline of 47.87% year-on-year, while agency sales reached 29.301 billion yuan, up 17.44% year-on-year, and e-commerce platform sales amounted to 1.772 billion yuan, growing by 35.64% [2] - In Q3 2024, the sales revenue from direct sales, agency sales, and e-commerce platforms were 0.051 billion yuan, 8.288 billion yuan, and 0.254 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -57.14%, +16.37%, and -46.19% [2] Regional Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the sales revenue in the domestic market was 11.900 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.58%, while the revenue from the external market was 19.353 billion yuan, with a growth of 21.44% [3] - In Q3 2024, the sales revenue from the external and domestic markets were 3.506 billion yuan and 5.087 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.12% and 10.95% [3] - The company added 5 distributors in the domestic market and 423 in the external market during the first three quarters of 2024 [3] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 74.29%, a slight decrease of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The tax and additional rate was 14.62%, down 1.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio was 10.54%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 34.14%, down 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 37.325 billion yuan, 42.648 billion yuan, and 48.227 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.9%, 14.3%, and 13.1% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 12.368 billion yuan, 14.497 billion yuan, and 16.627 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 18.5%, 17.2%, and 14.7% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 10.14 yuan, 11.88 yuan, and 13.63 yuan for the years 2024 to 2026 [4]