【百利好焦点列车】过往跌跌撞撞 未来充满希望

Group 1 - The global market has experienced significant volatility over the past six months, primarily due to the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, which has increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession [1][3] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 27%, significantly higher than levels seen in the 1990s, following the imposition of various tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and globally [3] - Despite a temporary pause on the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," inflationary pressures in the U.S. have increased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May reported at 2.4%, slightly above the previous value of 2.3% but below the expected 2.5% [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have escalated, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and tensions in the Middle East, contributing to increased global economic downward pressure [4] - The U.S. GDP growth rate fell sharply from 3% to -0.3% in the first quarter, with the probability of recession during the trade war reaching as high as 80% [4] - The U.S. is facing approximately $6.5 trillion in maturing debt, compounded by uncertainties from tariff policies, which poses a significant challenge to the credibility of the U.S. dollar [4]