闫瑞祥：黄金关注测试周线支撑，欧美暂时多看少动

Macroeconomic Overview - The conflict between Iran and the U.S. reached a ceasefire after 12 days, with Iran's retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases not disrupting energy transport, leading to a market reaction where gold and oil prices reversed their gains [1] - Gold prices closed at $3368.98 per ounce, while U.S. crude oil prices shifted from a 5% increase to a 9% decline [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman Bowman unexpectedly hinted at a possible rate cut in July, causing U.S. Treasury yields to drop and the dollar index to retreat, but this did not support gold prices [1] - The U.S. economy faces inflation and growth slowdown pressures, with potential for oil prices to surge if Middle Eastern tensions escalate, increasing stagflation risks [1] - Short-term ceasefire and Fed divergence are suppressing gold prices, while geopolitical risks and rate cut expectations may support gold in the medium to long term [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index experienced a high of 99.399 and a low of 98.32, closing at 98.361, indicating a volatile trading session [2] - The weekly analysis shows resistance around the 100 level, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] - Key support for the dollar index is at 98.60, with the price closing below this level, indicating potential for further declines [2] Gold Market - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a high of $3396.68 and a low of $3346.92, closing at $3368.94 [4] - The market is currently in a phase of oscillating declines, with significant support at the $3280 level [5] - The price must break above $3405 to shift the current bearish sentiment, with immediate focus on the $3360 and $3365 resistance levels [7] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an upward trend, with a low of 1.1452 and a high of 1.1581, closing at 1.1573 [7] - The market is supported at the 1.1300 level, indicating a long-term bullish outlook, while the 1.1500 level is critical for short-term movements [7] - Caution is advised until the recent high of 1.16305 is breached, as the market may remain in a consolidation phase [9]