美国再次出手，50%关税生效，伊朗拿出“底牌”，特朗普要栽了？

Group 1 - The Trump administration is taking a strong stance in international military actions, including bombing Iranian nuclear facilities and imposing a 50% tariff on various steel-derived products starting June 23, 2025 [1] - The market reaction to the tariff announcement has been muted, as attention shifts to the upcoming expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension period [1] - The U.S. is negotiating with 18 major trading partners, but only agreements with the UK and discussions with China have been reported, leading to concerns among allies like Japan and South Korea [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration's decision-making is heavily influenced by a profit-driven approach, reminiscent of historical U.S. interventionist diplomacy [5] - Allies are dissatisfied with the expectation to increase military spending, particularly when they have traditionally viewed the U.S. as a protector [6] - The bombing of Iranian facilities has triggered potential retaliation from Iran, threatening global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for countries like Japan and South Korea [6][8] Group 3 - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a spike in global oil prices, exacerbating inflation and increasing energy import costs for many countries [6] - The Trump administration's actions may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to further cut interest rates, impacting the U.S. economy [8] - The situation raises questions about Trump's capacity to manage the fallout from Iran's retaliation and maintain stability amid rising tensions [8]