巨富金业：特朗普亲信力挺7月降息，鲍威尔面临政治经济双重夹击

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal debates regarding the path of interest rate cuts, with key figures like Michelle Bowman supporting a potential cut as early as July if inflation remains moderate [2][3] - Trump's influence is evident as he publicly supports the idea of rate cuts, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach under political pressure [2][3] - Powell maintains a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for more data to confirm inflation trends despite recent economic indicators showing declines [2][3] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut in July has increased from 14.5% to 28% following the dovish comments from Bowman and Waller, indicating a shift in market expectations [3] - The dollar index has dropped to 98.2, which theoretically benefits gold prices, but geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment [4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, are influencing gold demand, with central banks increasing their gold reserves, highlighting the asset's appeal amid uncertainty [6]