特朗普出手了，50%关税生效！伊朗也出手了，挑战全球能源命脉

Group 1: Tariff Policy - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on certain steel products, effective June 23, 2025, expanding the scope to include everyday consumer goods like dishwashers and refrigerators [3][5] - This tariff increase follows a previous adjustment in March, where steel and aluminum tariffs were raised to 25% and then to 50% in June [5][16] - The policy aims to protect domestic industries, but it has sparked controversy as it may lead to increased appliance prices by 5%-10% due to higher import costs [7][5] Group 2: Impact on Global Oil Supply - Iran's parliament suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil, through which one-third of the world's oil supply is transported daily [9][11] - If closed, global oil supply could drop by 20%, potentially causing oil prices to surge from $75 per barrel to between $100 and $120 [11][30] - The rising oil prices could exacerbate inflation in the U.S., with the Federal Reserve raising inflation expectations to 3.5% for 2025, and the risk of inflation exceeding 4% if oil prices remain uncontrolled [20][22][44] Group 3: Economic Repercussions - The dual challenges of tariffs and rising oil prices place significant pressure on the U.S. economy, with potential impacts on consumer prices and manufacturing costs [20][22] - The situation could lead to a "stagflation" crisis, affecting not only the U.S. but also economies reliant on exports to the U.S., such as the EU and Asian countries [24][30] - Experts suggest that Trump's aggressive tariff strategy may be part of a larger plan to eventually lower tariffs while still generating significant revenue, potentially around $400 billion annually [26][41] Group 4: Domestic Steel Industry - The U.S. steel industry is currently underutilized, with a capacity utilization rate of only 78% as of Q1 2025, indicating that high tariffs have not significantly boosted domestic production [34] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies may not effectively revitalize the U.S. steel sector as intended, raising questions about the long-term viability of such measures [34][47]