Will Q4 Results Move Nike's Stock Up?

Group 1 - Nike is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on June 26, 2025, with anticipated earnings of 12 cents per share and revenue of $10.71 billion, reflecting an 88% decline in earnings and a 15% decrease in sales year-over-year [2] - The company indicated weak performance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, expecting a low-to-mid-teens revenue downturn in the fourth quarter, with gross margins projected to compress by 4 to 5 percentage points [3] - Full-year fiscal 2025 revenue is expected to decrease by 11%, with a slight 1% decline anticipated for fiscal 2026, indicating a slow recovery [3] Group 2 - Historical data shows that NKE stock has decreased 65% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day drop of 6.8% and a maximum observed decline of 20% [2] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for NKE, with positive one-day returns occurring approximately 35% of the time, dropping to 17% for the last three years [6] - The median of the 7 positive returns over five years is 6.7%, while the median of the 13 negative returns is -6.8% [6]