Nike ( NKE ) is widely viewed as a stable, long-term dividend compounder at the center of global athletic culture. But that perception is becoming increasingly disconnected from reality. Nike is no longer the athletic innovation leader; its brand hasHello, my name is Max. When I was young, one of my dreams was to make enough money through interest to live comfortably. At 14, my father introduced me to the concept of inflation, which shattered that dream but sparked a deeper interest in investing. He taught ...

金州勇士队的比赛日，除了胜负，如今还多了一个新的看点：Stephen Curry（斯蒂芬·库里）今天会上脚哪个品牌的球鞋。 这种关注从2025年11月库里与安德玛宣布结束合作后就开始了，他脚上的鞋成了观察下一步商业动作的窗口。 11月16日，他首次以自由身亮相，热身时穿的是耐克科比6代"Mambacita"配色。到了11月19日对阵魔术，他的鞋款更是轮番上阵——从球员通道里的锐 步"Shaqnosis"，到赛前热身的耐克Air Penny 2，最后在正赛换回自己的安德玛Curry Series 7。此后，李宁韦德之道的"魔鬼鱼"配色、Air Jordan 3等也相继 出现。 球迷们干脆把这件事当成看球的保留节目，戏称库里进入了"乱穿鞋"模式，但这看似随意的轮换背后，藏着不少心思，每一次选择都像是在和场外的品牌 们打哑谜。 他选择耐克科比系列，既是对科比的致敬，也好像是在对耐克——这个他职业生涯早期曾错过的品牌的一次隔空喊话。这次选择之所以引人遐想，是因为 双方在2013年那次关键续约会议上有过一段不太愉快的往事，当时，库里结束与耐克的新秀合同，但据ESPN等媒体报道，耐克团队不仅有人念错他的名 字，PPT上甚 ...

Core Viewpoint - On Holding is adopting a full-price strategy for the holiday season, opting out of Black Friday discounts to reinforce its premium brand positioning [1][2]. Company Performance - On Holding reported Q3 net sales of 794.4 million Swiss francs ($994.3 million) and a net income of 118.9 million francs, significantly up from 30.5 million francs in the same quarter last year [4]. - The company raised its full-year sales guidance from 2.91 billion francs to 2.98 billion francs, indicating strong performance and optimism [4]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Adidas and Nike are engaging in early Black Friday promotions, contrasting with On's strategy [2]. - Nike anticipates a decrease in fiscal Q2 revenue and a drop in gross margins, with Q1 net income down 31% year over year [5]. - HOKA, owned by Deckers, is also promoting discounted holiday gifts, reflecting a different approach compared to On [3]. Market Trends - Deckers' brands, HOKA and UGG, saw sales increases of 11.1% and 10.1% year over year, while other brands under Deckers experienced a 26.5% decrease [7]. - Tariffs are influencing sales guidance adjustments for Nike and Deckers, as rising prices are affecting consumer purchasing behavior [8].

3 元 3 - 1 - 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本周重磅发布策略报告,挖掘新消费、看好全球制造 本期投资提示: -纺织服装行业周报 20251123 相关研究 《 澳毛价格企稳回升，全运会开幕提振户 外运动板块——纺织服装行业周报 20251116》 2025/11/16 《 10 月纺服出口承压,中美磋商利好有望 修复出口链一 -- 纺织服装行业周报 20251110》 2025/11/10 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanqlp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 (8621)23297818× zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代小 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。11 月 17 日 ~ 11 月 21 日, SW 纺织服饰指数下 ...

2025年11月5日，美国最高法院举行了长达两个半小时的听证会，这场听证会几乎把特朗普推到了悬崖 边缘。这个曾依靠关税大棒横扫全球贸易的总统，这次终于碰到了棘手的问题，质疑他的不是民主党的 对手，也不是外国政府，而是他自己亲自提名的保守派大法官。实际上，特朗普这次纯粹是被自己人逼 到了火坑里。 最高法院的六位保守派大法官本来是特朗普的铁票仓，结果在听证会上，反而对他的政 策展开了毫不留情的批判，提出了尖锐的问题。这场被称为世纪辩论的较量，不仅关系到特朗普关税政 策的命运，还可能让美国财政背上万亿的债务，甚至改变全球贸易的规则。 这场听证会的戏剧性堪比 一部好莱坞大片，反转不断。特朗普原本计划亲自去旁听最高法院的辩论，并且提前宣布这是美国历史 上最重要的案件之一。然而，临近日期，特朗普突然取消了这一行程，这一决定引发了外界的猜测，认 为他可能是担心在听证会上受到反对，反而被自己人打脸。 特朗普政府的策略其实很简单：他们利用 1977年的《国际紧急经济权力法》作为盾牌，将长期存在的贸易逆差问题说成是国家紧急状态，然后对 几乎所有国家加征关税，最低10%，最高甚至达到50%。对中国的关税一度飙升至145%。然而，最 ...

Product Innovation - Nike's latest jacket features an inflatable system designed for Olympians [1] Company Strategy - Nike CEO Elliott Hill is trying to reinvigorate the company [1]

While Shake Shack has plenty of strengths, the company’s stock is down sharply this year. The stock hit a peak at the end of July – and it has lost more than 40% since then. Much of that hit came in the wake of the 2Q25 report, which showed strong revenue – but slower-than-expected growth. Same-store sales growth in Q2 came in at 1.8%, down from 4% in the year-ago period and below the 2.2% increase that had been expected.The chain’s menu features the expected lineup of burger-joint fare: a range of burger v ...

Product Innovation - Nike's latest jacket features an inflatable system designed for Olympians [1] Leadership & Strategy - Nike CEO Elliott Hill is working to reinvigorate the company [2]

Core Insights - The competitive landscape between NIKE Inc. and Steven Madden Ltd. highlights their distinct market positions, with NIKE as a leader in performance sports and Steven Madden focusing on fashion-forward casual footwear [1][2] NIKE Inc. (NKE) - NIKE's investment case is supported by its significant scale and leadership in the global athleticwear market, with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue reaching $11.72 billion, indicating the effectiveness of its "Win Now" strategy [3][4] - The brand experienced a more than 20% surge in running sales, and North America saw an 11% increase in wholesale, maintaining its status as a leading sportswear brand among younger consumers [4][5] - NIKE's strategic initiatives include a new Sport Offense structure aimed at enhancing product innovation and cultural relevance, alongside efforts to reset classic franchises and focus on key growth categories [5][6] - Despite challenges such as digital softness and tariff pressures leading to a gross margin decline to 42.2%, NIKE's management remains confident in returning to double-digit margins over time [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE's fiscal 2026 sales suggests a modest year-over-year growth of 0.8%, with EPS expected to decline by 24.1% [12] Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) - Steven Madden presents a differentiated investment case with strong brand equity and diversified category exposure, achieving a 6.9% revenue growth in Q3 and expanding gross margin to 43.4% [8][11] - The company benefits from a multi-brand portfolio and a robust presence with 397 stores and seven e-commerce sites, appealing to Gen Z and millennial consumers [7][10] - Product innovation and disciplined pricing strategies are driving demand, particularly in high-demand categories like boots and casual footwear [9][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Steven Madden's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year growth of 10.3%, with EPS expected to decline by 40.1% [14] - Steven Madden's stock has increased by 37% over the past three months, reflecting improving analyst sentiment and expectations for continued growth [8][16] Valuation and Performance Comparison - NIKE shares have declined by 17.8% in the past three months, while Steven Madden's stock has seen significant growth [16] - NIKE is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 30.29X, slightly below its five-year median, indicating a potential opportunity for long-term investors [18][19] - In contrast, Steven Madden's forward P/E multiple is at 18.32X, above its historical median, suggesting elevated market expectations for continued recovery and growth [18][20] - The analysis indicates that NIKE is viewed as a stable leader, while Steven Madden is perceived as a growth story with higher expectations [21] Conclusion - NIKE remains a global icon with unmatched scale, but the near-term outlook favors Steven Madden due to stronger price performance and improving analyst expectations [25][26] - Steven Madden's relative affordability and operational improvements strengthen its investment case, making it a compelling opportunity for growth-focused investors [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock has entered a "death cross" technical formation, indicating challenging times for the sneaker manufacturer [1] Group 1 - The "death cross" is a pessimistic technical indicator that suggests a potential decline in stock performance [1]