纽约时报猛文预警，中国45%制造份额改写“美国世纪”终章

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential dominance of China in global manufacturing and technology sectors, warning that the U.S. may be left with a "high-priced, low-quality" domestic market due to its current policies and trade wars [1][3][4]. Group 1: China's Industrial Dominance - China is projected to hold a 45% share of global manufacturing by 2030, significantly surpassing the combined output of the U.S., Japan, and Germany [5][8]. - Key industries where China leads include steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, batteries, solar energy, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, 5G devices, consumer electronics, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and high-speed rail [5][9]. - By 2024, China's manufacturing output is expected to reach 31.6%, with a trajectory to 45% by 2030, while the combined share of the U.S., Japan, and Germany will drop to 19% [5][8]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariffs and reduced research funding are undermining its innovation base, leading to a talent drain and missed opportunities in the competition with China [3][12]. - The article highlights a strategic paradox in U.S. policy, where a zero-sum mindset is eroding its core competitiveness and risking a decline similar to that of Detroit [12][13]. - The U.S. is increasingly isolating itself from global supply chains, which could lead to a broader economic decline [12][16]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - China's integration into global supply chains has allowed it to transform from a "world factory" to a "global innovation hub," contributing over 30% to global economic growth [15][16]. - The article emphasizes that the rise of Chinese industries is a result of creative transformation of globalization benefits, contrasting with the U.S. approach of building trade barriers [12][16]. - The ongoing shift in global industrial power dynamics is evidenced by increasing foreign investments in Chinese technology sectors, as countries seek partnerships with China [17].