鲍威尔证词全文：静观其变，明确信号后再考虑调整政策

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy remains in a solid state despite uncertainties, with low unemployment and inflation slightly above the 2% target, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged [1][2][5]. Economic Situation and Outlook - The U.S. economy showed resilience with a GDP growth of 2.5% last year, although there was a slight decline in the first quarter due to net export fluctuations caused by businesses pre-importing to mitigate potential tariffs [3]. - Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) maintained a steady growth of 2.5%, with consumer spending slowing down but a rebound in equipment and intangible asset investments [3]. - Surveys indicate a decline in market confidence and increased uncertainty regarding economic outlook, primarily related to trade policies [3]. - The labor market remains robust, with an average monthly addition of 124,000 non-farm jobs in the first five months of the year and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [3]. - Wage growth has slowed but remains above inflation levels, indicating a balanced labor market that aligns with maximum employment goals [3]. Inflation - Inflation has significantly decreased since mid-2022 but remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rising by 2.3% over the past 12 months, and core PCE increasing by 2.6% [4]. - Recent inflation expectations have risen, influenced by tariffs, although long-term expectations generally align with the 2% target [4]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy focuses on achieving maximum employment and price stability, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% due to the current labor market conditions and inflation levels [5][6]. - The Fed is gradually reducing its holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, with a flexible approach to adjusting monetary policy based on new data and economic outlook [6]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation and economic activity remains uncertain, with expectations of price increases due to tariffs potentially exerting pressure on the economy [6]. - The Fed aims to stabilize long-term inflation expectations to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [6].