Sublime China Information (SZ:301299) Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang·2025-06-24 13:15Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market has experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year due to trade tensions and supply-demand dynamics, with domestic cotton prices gradually recovering after hitting a near six-year low [1][2] Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - Cotton prices fell to 13,527 yuan/ton on April 9, down 992 yuan/ton from the high point earlier in the year, but began to recover following easing trade tensions from the China-U.S. Geneva economic talks in May [1][2] - The average price of China's 3128B grade cotton is expected to reach 14,417 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, an increase of 317 yuan/ton compared to the first half [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has raised concerns about the stability of the global cotton textile industry, leading to a significant increase in import cotton costs and a shift towards Brazilian cotton, which accounted for 45% of imports in the first half of 2024 [2] - By 2025, the proportion of U.S. cotton imports is expected to drop to 20%, while Brazilian cotton's share may rise to 57% [2] Group 3: Industry Restructuring and Innovation - The cotton textile industry is focusing on "new quality productivity" to reshape competitive advantages through supply chain resilience [4] - Xinjiang is actively promoting the development of the cotton and textile industry chain, aiming to enhance the local conversion rate of cotton and build industry clusters [4] - Companies are leveraging technological innovation and digital transformation to enhance production resilience, with initiatives like smart factories and AI-driven optimization [4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Strategy - Despite low revenue and profit levels in the cotton textile industry expected in the first half of 2025, structural adjustments such as capacity expansion and digital transformation are showing initial results [5] - The industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development to address external uncertainties, emphasizing technological innovation and supply chain enhancement [5]