Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-24 13:53Core Insights - Counterpoint Research indicates that Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are expected to launch 2nm system-on-chip (SoC) in the second half of 2026, with TSMC likely as the manufacturer [1] - The adoption of 3nm and 2nm nodes is accelerating due to the integration of more AI features in devices, driven primarily by Apple, which will have over 80% of its product line using 3nm technology this year [1] - The overall cost of SoCs is rising due to increased semiconductor content and wafer price hikes, with one-third of smartphone SoCs projected to adopt 3nm and 2nm technologies by 2026 [1] Company and Industry Analysis - TSMC is expected to begin packaging tests for the 2nm node in the second half of 2025 and achieve mass production by 2026, with Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek anticipated to release their flagship SoCs by the end of 2026 [1] - TSMC currently holds approximately two-thirds of the semiconductor foundry market share as of Q4 2024 [1] - TSMC is projected to account for 87% of the total shipment volume of smartphone SoCs at 5nm and below (3nm and 2nm nodes), with this share expected to grow to 89% by the end of 2028 [2] - Major clients like Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek rely heavily on TSMC, which may hinder Samsung's foundry competitiveness in advanced nodes due to past yield issues affecting the 3nm process [2]