战争、爆仓与反弹：比特币的十日“生死劫”

Market Overview - Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations since 2025, with a notable drop below $101,000 on June 6, 2025, following a peak of $105,000 earlier in June [2] - The price of Bitcoin was approximately $104,272 on June 20, 2025, and it fell to its lowest level since May due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and renewed inflation concerns [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Following the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, a supply contraction effect has emerged, coupled with increasing demand from both institutional and retail investors, driving prices upward [3] - The number of wallets holding more than 10 BTC has been increasing, indicating that long-term holders are accumulating [3] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The military actions in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iran starting June 13, 2025, triggered a significant deleveraging event in the cryptocurrency market, leading to a liquidation of $10.15 billion on June 22, 2025 [5][6] - The conflict has caused a "death spiral" in the market, with a net outflow of $644 million from Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. over six consecutive days [6] Market Recovery and Volatility - Following a ceasefire agreement on June 23, 2025, Bitcoin's price surged by 5% to over $106,000, but underlying demand from large investors and ETFs has decreased by 50% since the peak [7] - The price levels of $92,000 and $81,000 are identified as critical support and resistance levels for Bitcoin [7] Broader Financial Market Reactions - The conflict has also impacted oil prices, with potential threats to the supply chain in the Middle East leading to a spike in international crude oil prices [7] - Other financial markets, including stock markets in Israel and Iran, have faced significant volatility due to the conflict, with technology stocks in the U.S. experiencing declines [8] Future Outlook for Bitcoin - The supply-demand structure post-halving is expected to continue supporting Bitcoin prices in the long term, especially with increasing institutional investment [9] - Legislative support, such as Texas establishing a public Bitcoin reserve, is seen as a positive development for the cryptocurrency market [9] - The potential for Bitcoin to serve as a financial infrastructure in conflict zones has been highlighted, showcasing its resilience and utility in extreme conditions [10]