摩根士丹利、高盛点出“秘密指标”：全球资本正逃离美元！

Core Insights - Analysts from major banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have noted recent changes in the "cross-currency basis swap," which measures the additional cost of exchanging one currency for another beyond cash market borrowing costs [1][2] - There has been a notable decrease in the preference for dollar liquidity, particularly relative to the euro, which may lead to higher borrowing costs in euros compared to dollars [1][2] - The dollar index has dropped over 8% this year, marking the worst annual start in its twenty-year history, amid uncertainties related to the Trump administration's policies and the future fiscal outlook of the U.S. [2] Group 1 - The cross-currency basis is crucial as it sets the pricing for long-term foreign exchange hedging for global companies and investors [2] - There is a significant concern regarding the persistent shift in global capital flows, particularly the movement of funds from the U.S. to Europe [2] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs believe that the European Central Bank's balance sheet reduction may last longer than the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening efforts, supporting a tightening of euro funding relative to the dollar [2] Group 2 - The mild changes in currency basis after the "liberation day" indicate a lack of aggressive demand for the dollar in a more resilient global financial system [3] - Goldman Sachs posits that the euro could become more expensive than the dollar in the cross-currency basis swap market, a rare occurrence in the past two decades [3]