财政收支分化：收入承压但支出加码 期待更多增量财政政策

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported a decline in national public budget revenue for the first five months of the year, indicating challenges in fiscal performance despite some positive trends in specific tax categories [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - Total public budget revenue reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to 17,467 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue was 41,486 billion yuan, a decline of 3%, while local government revenue grew by 1.9% to 55,137 billion yuan [2]. Tax Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax grew by 2.4% to 30,850 billion yuan, with the increase attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [3]. - Corporate income tax saw a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, although the rate of decline improved by 0.6 percentage points [2][3]. - Personal income tax increased by 8.2%, benefiting from a low base effect as well [2][3]. - Securities transaction stamp duty surged by 52.4% to 66.8 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery in capital market activity [3]. Expenditure Trends - National public budget expenditure reached 112,953 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [3]. - Spending on livelihood-related areas maintained a growth rate of approximately 7.8%, while infrastructure spending decreased by 7.7% [4]. - Expenditure on technology and innovation surged by 20.1%, highlighting a focus on enhancing industrial resilience [4]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The overall fiscal deficit reached 3.30 trillion yuan by May, with a deficit rate of 2.4%, higher than most levels in the past five years [5]. - The sustainability of fiscal efforts post-June is under scrutiny, especially as previous fiscal measures have relied heavily on government debt financing [5]. - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for timely policy adjustments to stabilize employment and the economy, with expectations for more fiscal measures in the second half of the year [5].