鲍威尔国会听证首日：重申观望 不排除提前降息可能 但6月7月数据很重要

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July but suggested that officials might wait until at least September to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][4][5] - Powell indicated that if inflation pressures are indeed controlled, the Fed would act quickly to lower rates, but he refrained from specifying a particular meeting for such a decision [5][13] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has been a significant factor in the Fed's decision-making process, with Powell noting that most FOMC members believe a rate cut later this year is appropriate [6][10] Group 2 - Powell emphasized that the current interest rates are at a modestly restrictive level, and the Fed is cautious about making any hasty decisions regarding rate cuts [9][13] - He acknowledged that tariffs are a key driver of recent inflation expectations, and the Fed is closely monitoring their effects on consumer prices [7][14] - Powell stated that the Fed has not fully restored price stability and must proceed with caution to avoid future inflation shocks [15][19] Group 3 - Powell mentioned that the housing market is not significantly affected by the Fed's policies in the long term, as the central bank's primary goal is to reduce inflation [8][10] - He noted that the real estate market is experiencing a decline in rental inflation, which is a positive development [8] - Powell highlighted that the Fed's actions are aimed at achieving overall price stability, which may take time to reflect in housing costs [8][15] Group 4 - Powell discussed the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve, stating that political pressures should not influence monetary policy decisions [29][31] - He reiterated that the Fed's credibility in controlling inflation is crucial for long-term interest rates and economic stability [29][35] - Powell expressed concerns about the unsustainable trajectory of federal debt and its potential impact on the economy if not addressed promptly [35][36]