债王格罗斯：美股将迎来“小牛市”，而美债则是“小熊市”

Group 1 - Bill Gross warns of a "mini bear market" in the U.S. bond market, stating that the 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4.25% due to rising fiscal deficits and a weakening dollar, which will drive inflation higher [1][7] - Gross predicts that the stock market will experience a "mini bull market" driven by AI, with economic growth expected to reach 1-2% despite tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 3% and the Nasdaq 100 index has increased by more than 5% year-to-date, recently reaching a historical high [2] Group 2 - Analysts expect institutional investors to increase stock allocations following retail investors taking advantage of recent market dips [4] - Gross notes that the current 10-year yield is around 4.3%, which is typically 1.75 percentage points higher than the consumer price index, indicating limited reasons for a significant drop in rates [4][7] - Gross's latest views reflect a shift from his earlier stance in April, where he advised caution during tariff-induced market volatility [8][9]