Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-25 00:32Core Viewpoint - The rapid development and regulatory attention on stablecoins, particularly in the U.S. and Hong Kong, highlight their growing significance in the cryptocurrency market and the broader financial system [1]. Group 1: Development and Market Size - Stablecoins have experienced explosive growth, with the market size expanding from $5 billion in 2020 to $250 billion currently, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 100% [2]. - The transaction volume of stablecoins is approaching $37 trillion, and it is estimated that the market could reach $4 trillion in ten years, implying a CAGR of over 30% [2]. - Over 95% of stablecoins are currently dollar-pegged, indicating a strong reliance on the U.S. dollar [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The rise of distributed ledger technology and the rapid development of digital currencies and virtual economies are key factors driving the growth of stablecoins [2]. - Stablecoins offer high payment efficiency, particularly in cross-border transactions, and can operate without the need for bank accounts, making them attractive in regions with underdeveloped banking systems [2]. - Issuers of stablecoins can retain interest income from reserve assets, contributing to increased profitability in recent years [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - A clearer regulatory framework is expected to enhance the balance between efficiency and safety in stablecoin development, addressing risks related to compliance and redemption [3]. Group 4: Implications for Global Monetary System - The dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins is expected to continue in the short term, but other currencies like the euro, yen, pound, and even the renminbi may gain traction in the medium to long term [4]. - If stablecoins include assets beyond fiat currencies, such as credit-derivative bonds, they could lead to credit expansion similar to "shadow banking," potentially increasing overall liquidity [4]. - The U.S. GENIUS Act mandates that dollar stablecoin reserves must be held in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, which could distort yield curves and impact financial conditions [4]. Group 5: Development of Local Stablecoins - The development of a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin requires a robust reserve asset pool, particularly focusing on high-liquidity assets beyond cash [5]. - In the context of global de-dollarization, promoting offshore renminbi stablecoins could be essential for enhancing their usage and supporting cross-border business [5]. - Supporting Chinese enterprises in expanding overseas and increasing the use cases for stablecoins are critical for the success of Hong Kong's stablecoin market and could further the internationalization of the renminbi [5].