3 6 Ke·2025-06-25 00:57Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating valuation and market perception of Pop Mart, highlighting its journey from a high-flying IPO to significant declines and recent recoveries driven by the popularity of its IP, Labubu. The narrative oscillates between skepticism and optimism regarding the sustainability of its growth and valuation in the context of the collectible toy market. Group 1: Company Performance and Valuation - Pop Mart's market capitalization reached over 100 billion HKD on its IPO, but it faced a dramatic decline, losing 90% of its value by 2022, before recovering to a peak market cap of 380 billion HKD in 2025 [1][2] - The stock price of Pop Mart fluctuated significantly, dropping from 283.4 HKD to 20 HKD, reflecting investor sentiment and market conditions [1][2] - The company reported a revenue of 130.4 billion RMB in 2024, marking a significant increase, with Labubu contributing over 30 billion RMB, accounting for 23.3% of total revenue [7][8] Group 2: Product and IP Development - Labubu's emergence as a leading IP has significantly impacted Pop Mart's sales and market perception, with its products experiencing a surge in demand and prices in secondary markets [5][6] - The diversification of product categories, particularly the growth of plush toys, has led to a 1289% increase in revenue from this segment, now the second-largest revenue contributor [7][8] - The company has established a robust IP creation mechanism, collaborating with over 350 artists to continuously develop new IPs, which has led to a more balanced revenue distribution among various IPs [14][15] Group 3: Market Expansion and Globalization - Pop Mart's overseas revenue reached 50.66 billion RMB in 2024, a 375.2% increase, with significant growth in Southeast Asia and North America [9][17] - The company is transitioning from a local toy manufacturer to a global IP ecosystem platform, aiming to replicate the success of major players like Disney [10][28] - The increasing share of overseas revenue, which rose from 10% to 38.9% in three years, indicates a strong potential for future growth in international markets [25][17] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite recent successes, concerns remain about the sustainability of Pop Mart's high valuation, with a current P/E ratio around 100, significantly higher than industry averages [17][18] - The cyclical nature of the collectible toy market raises questions about the longevity of trends and consumer interest, particularly in light of regulatory scrutiny on blind box sales [22][26] - The company's efforts to diversify its IP portfolio and explore new business avenues, such as theme parks and media content, are seen as critical to maintaining growth and investor confidence [27][30]