交易员布局降息行情，豪赌美债收益率暴跌至4%

Group 1 - Traders are increasing bets through options that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will drop to its lowest level since April, amid dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials and fluctuating Middle East tensions [1] - The bets, concentrated in 10-year Treasury call options expiring in August, attracted at least $38 million in premiums last week and this week, aiming to hedge against the yield falling from approximately 4.3% to 4% in the coming weeks [1][4] - A notable transaction involved a call option with a strike price of 113.00 (equivalent to a yield of about 4%), which paid nearly $10 million in premiums, indicating new long positions rather than closing existing shorts [1] Group 2 - The push for these bullish hedges is driven by Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Waller and Vice Chair Bowman, who seem to support a potential rate cut as early as July [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut have increased, with interest rate swap contracts pricing in a reduction of about 4 basis points for the July meeting, and cumulative cuts for the remaining four meetings of the year rising from 45 basis points to 60 basis points [4] - Weak consumer confidence data released on Tuesday further supported these options positions, pushing the 10-year yield below 4.3%, marking a new low since early May [4] Group 3 - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that despite recent positive inflation data, the Fed needs to understand the full impact of tariffs on prices before making significant policy changes [5] - New York Fed President Williams expects U.S. economic growth to slow to around 1% this year, with unemployment rising to 4.5% by year-end, largely due to the effects of trade tariffs [5] - Williams also anticipates inflation to rise to 3% due to Trump's tariff policies, before gradually returning to the 2% target over two years [5] Group 4 - Kansas Fed President George stated that the resilience of the economy allows the Fed to observe developments before deciding on rate cuts, emphasizing that current employment and inflation levels are close to the Fed's targets [6]