【期货热点追踪】伊以再次打起来了？！原油对焦煤的扰动或未结束，双焦夜盘有可能高开吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, announced by President Trump, has led to a significant drop in international oil prices, which in turn affects the coal market, particularly coking coal and coke prices [1][4]. Macroeconomic Summary - Social financing in May remains weak, with low financing demand from households and enterprises, supported only by government bond financing. The State Council has reiterated the need to stabilize the real estate market, with cities like Guangzhou fully lifting purchase restrictions [1]. - Since April, various cities have started using housing vouchers as a means to promote sales, marking a significant policy shift. Investor sentiment towards the real estate market remains pessimistic, making a short-term turnaround difficult [1]. Industry Policy Summary - Discussions on implementing production limits for crude steel are advancing, but steel mills show reluctance to reduce output due to acceptable profit margins [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - Last week, steel production increased while inventory decreased, with total apparent demand for five major steel products rising by 160,800 tons to 8,841,800 tons. The profitability of 247 steel mills rose to 59.31%, reducing the incentive for production cuts [2]. - Daily pig iron production has ended a five-week decline, increasing by 5,700 tons to 2,421,800 tons, indicating persistent demand for coke. However, independent coking enterprises have seen a decline in capacity utilization due to environmental policies and equipment maintenance, leading to an over 8% drop in coke inventory [2]. Market Outlook Summary - According to Xinda Futures, with the end of the Israel-Iran conflict, the short-term disturbances in oil prices will dissipate, allowing coking coal to return to its own market logic. If coking coal remains resilient in the face of falling oil prices, there is potential for future price increases [4]. - The fourth round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, putting pressure on the spot market. The supply side of coke remains relatively loose despite some improvements [2][4]. Technical Analysis Summary - In the technical analysis, the 4-hour K-line for both coking coal and coke is positioned below the 20 and 60 moving averages, indicating a trend of oscillation and suggesting caution in trading strategies [5][6].