大摩邢自强：稳定币与人民币国际化？一场持久战

Group 1 - China's renewed interest in stablecoins is driven by concerns over US legislation that may enhance the dominance of the dollar [1] - The US Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act could transform dollar-pegged stablecoins into synthetic dollars, reinforcing their connection to global payment networks [1][2] - The rise of stablecoins is seen as an extension of existing currencies rather than a challenge to the dollar's dominance, expanding its influence into cryptocurrency and emerging markets [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its stance from banning to planning for stablecoins and digital currencies, aiming to develop a multipolar international monetary system [2] - The digital yuan and stablecoins are proposed as viable alternatives for cross-border settlements, addressing inefficiencies in traditional payment systems [2] - The future of the renminbi stablecoin is constrained by domestic usage bans, capital controls, and the dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong has become the first jurisdiction to legislate stablecoins, requiring 100% backing by high-quality reserves to establish a 1:1 redemption mechanism [3] - The introduction of offshore renminbi stablecoins in Hong Kong aims to validate cross-border settlement applications while avoiding capital control violations [3] - Stablecoins are viewed as tools to enhance existing monetary frameworks rather than creating a new supranational currency system [3] Group 4 - Despite efforts to build cross-border settlement infrastructure, the internationalization of the renminbi has faced setbacks, with its global reserve currency share declining from 2.8% to 2.0% [4] - Restoring global confidence in China's growth potential is crucial for increasing the renminbi's usage, necessitating structural reforms to shift the economy towards consumption [4] - Achieving renminbi internationalization is expected to be a long and challenging process, requiring careful implementation of reforms [4]