伊朗专家给以色列损招，中国能源命脉遭威胁，中东或引爆全球油荒

Group 1 - The core argument presented by the expert Carol is that if Israel attacks Iran's oil facilities, it would significantly harm China, which relies on Iran for 12% of its oil supply, particularly affecting refineries in Shandong that depend on Iranian oil for 95% of their needs [1] - The suggestion overlooks critical factors, such as Iran's potential retaliation by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, affecting 30% of the world's oil supply and impacting countries like Japan and South Korea that rely on this route for 90% and 88% of their oil imports respectively [3] - China has diversified its oil supply sources, with increased imports from Canada and strategic reserves that can last for three months, along with collaborations in renewable energy projects with Saudi Arabia, indicating preparedness for potential disruptions [3][5] Group 2 - Iran's economy heavily relies on oil revenue, which constitutes over 60% of its fiscal income, making it unlikely for Iran to risk severing ties with China, especially given their significant trade agreements [5] - Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, oppose Israel's potential actions against Iran, fearing retaliation that could affect their oil fields, while the U.S. is also concerned about rising oil prices impacting its economy [5][7] - The modern energy landscape indicates that simply cutting off oil supplies does not guarantee victory in geopolitical conflicts, as China's diversified supply chain and strategic reserves create a safety net against potential disruptions [7]