HTSC(SH:601688) Huan Qiu Wang·2025-06-25 02:35Core Insights - The report by Huatai Securities analyzes the rapid development of stablecoins, their potential impact, and future trends, indicating that stablecoins are moving from the periphery of innovation to the mainstream financial system, which may profoundly affect the global monetary landscape [1][3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The market size of stablecoins has surged from $5 billion in 2020 to $250 billion currently, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 100%, and transaction volumes nearing $37 trillion [3]. - It is conservatively estimated that in 10 years, the stablecoin market could reach $4 trillion, increasing its share of global off-chain settlement from 0.4% to 3%-4% [3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has optimistic projections, suggesting that by the end of 2029, the market value of stablecoins could reach between $3.5 trillion and $4 trillion [3]. Group 2: Dominance and Future Trends - In the short term, dollar-pegged stablecoins dominate the market due to their first-mover advantage, but in the medium to long term, network effects may lead to the rise of euro, yen, pound, and even renminbi stablecoins [3]. - If stablecoin reserves include credit-creating assets like bonds, it could trigger credit expansion similar to "shadow banking" [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Considerations - Although stablecoins are not government-backed currencies, changes in the risk premium of underlying assets (like U.S. Treasuries) could lead to liquidity risks, especially as U.S. fiscal sustainability and external account balance issues become more pronounced [4]. - For Hong Kong dollar stablecoins, it is recommended to expand the reserve asset pool, particularly by enhancing the allocation of high-liquidity fixed-income products beyond cash [4]. - The report emphasizes that the rise of stablecoins is both a product of technological innovation and a catalyst for changes in the global monetary system, with regulatory coordination and risk management of underlying assets being crucial for their development [4].