北京楼市：止跌回稳 外资或要进场抄底了

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has proposed a draft to reform foreign exchange management for cross-border investment and financing, which includes lifting restrictions on foreign capital's use of foreign exchange income for purchasing non-self-occupied residential properties in China [3][4][5]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The proposed changes will allow foreign enterprises and multinational companies to directly convert foreign exchange into RMB for investment in the domestic residential market, thus encouraging international capital to enter the housing market [3][4]. - The lifting of restrictions on foreign investment in residential properties reflects a need for capital influx to stabilize the market, as current market conditions appear somewhat cold [5][23]. Group 2: Market Implications - The entry of foreign capital may lead to a more pronounced market differentiation, with foreign investors likely targeting recognized core quality assets, potentially increasing their prices while less popular properties may continue to struggle [6][23]. - Recent transaction data indicates a downward trend in housing prices, although the rate of decline is slowing, particularly for larger units in newly built communities [7][19]. Group 3: Housing Price Trends - Specific examples of housing price changes show significant declines, such as a 40% drop in the price of a 57㎡ unit in Zhichun East from 2021 to 2025 [14]. - The overall trend in Beijing's housing market indicates a substantial decrease in prices for school district properties, with the premium associated with such properties beginning to diminish [12][23]. Group 4: Economic Context - The current global economic environment presents limited attractive investment channels outside of the stock and real estate markets, making the relaxation of foreign investment restrictions a strategic move to attract more international capital [23]. - The potential expansion of local government bond issuance to support urban redevelopment could further enhance the likelihood of foreign capital inflow into the real estate sector [23].