Core Insights - The dominance of the US dollar is gradually weakening amid global trade fragmentation and geopolitical turmoil, with central banks increasingly focusing on gold, euros, and renminbi [1][2] Group 1: Central Bank Trends - One-third of central banks managing a total of $5 trillion in assets plan to increase gold holdings in the next one to two years, marking the highest level in at least five years [1] - 40% of central banks intend to increase their gold holdings over the next decade, reflecting a significant trend towards gold accumulation [1] - The US dollar has dropped to the seventh position among the most favored currencies among surveyed central banks, with 70% citing the US political environment as a barrier to investing in dollars [1] Group 2: Currency Preferences - The euro has become the most sought-after currency, with 16% of central banks planning to increase euro holdings in the next 12 to 24 months, up from 7% a year ago [2] - Renminbi is also gaining traction, with 30% of central banks expecting to increase their holdings over the next decade, potentially raising its global reserve share to 6% [3] - The euro's share in global reserves is projected to rise from approximately 20% to about 25% by the end of 2030, as central banks become more optimistic about the euro post "liberation day" [3][5] Group 3: Future Projections - By 2035, the average expectation for the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves is 52%, down from the current 58% [3] - The euro is expected to reach around 22% of global reserves in the next ten years, driven by a decline in the dollar's status rather than an inherent strength in the eurozone [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the euro could realistically achieve a 25% share of global reserves within 2 to 3 years, contingent on increased bond issuance and capital market integration in the eurozone [5][6]
美元避险角色受质疑,各国央行盯上黄金、欧元和人民币
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-25 03:01