杨岩泽：鼎裕盟领头人，谈东升西落

Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy of "East Rising, West Falling" emphasizes the importance of market cycles and industry rotation as core decision-making factors for investors [2][9] - This philosophy suggests that investors should align with market trends, seizing opportunities during industry upswings while retreating during downturns to mitigate risks [2] Group 2: Global Economic Outlook - The Western economies, particularly the US and Europe, are facing a "West Falling" trend due to multiple economic challenges, making it difficult for them to regain growth momentum in the short term [3][4] - High inflation and monetary tightening have resulted from extensive fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policies during the pandemic, leading to a prolonged "stagflation" dilemma in Western economies [3] - The burden of public debt in Western countries, especially the US, limits fiscal policy flexibility and hampers economic recovery [3] - Labor market shortages and productivity issues, exacerbated by aging populations, are structural problems that will continue to drag down Western economic performance [3] - Increased geopolitical uncertainties, such as the US-China trade war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have complicated global supply chains and international trade, further destabilizing Western economies [3] Group 3: A-Share Market Potential - The A-share market is viewed positively, with significant growth potential driven by China's economic recovery, policy support, and industry restructuring [6][9] - China's strong domestic demand and complete industrial chain position it well for rapid growth, especially as consumption and service sectors recover post-pandemic [6] - Government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting growth, particularly in manufacturing and high-tech industries, provide robust support for the A-share market [6] - Investment opportunities in the A-share market are particularly strong in sectors like technology, new energy, and consumer upgrades, with leading companies like CATL and BYD expected to benefit from policy support and market demand [6] - The relative valuation of the A-share market is considered reasonable, with many sectors, such as new energy and consumer goods, offering attractive entry points for long-term investors [7]