BlueberryMarkets蓝莓市场：美元承压多重因素，降息后何去何从？

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Dynamics - The dollar exhibited a complex and varied performance in the foreign exchange market, influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policy expectations, and global economic adjustments [1] - On June 25, 2025, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1712, down 0.006000 from the previous day, reflecting a decline of 0.0112% [1] - The dollar index fell by 0.3% on June 23, closing at 98.411, indicating a broader trend of weakening against other currencies [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors Impacting the Dollar - Recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. has shown weakness, with non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [3] - High interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve are accumulating internal risks within the U.S. economy, leading to reduced demand for dollar assets and downward pressure on the dollar's exchange rate [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy and Its Implications - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is a core driver of the dollar's performance, with market expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut in September 2025 [4] - A rate cut would narrow the interest rate differential between the dollar and non-dollar currencies, likely leading to a decline in the dollar's strong position [4] Group 4: Global Economic Context and Dollar's Challenges - Since late 2024, the dollar index has entered a downward trend due to a decrease in the U.S. economy's global weight and challenges such as manufacturing hollowing out [5] - The restructuring of global supply chains and rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to a high-risk environment, prompting investors to seek diversification away from the dollar [6] Group 5: Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index - Technical analysis indicates a clear downtrend for the dollar index, with bearish signals across multiple time frames, including a breakdown of previous upward trend lines [8] - Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest continued bearish momentum for the dollar [8] Group 6: Future Outlook for the Dollar - The future trajectory of the dollar remains uncertain, with potential support if U.S. economic data improves and inflation is controlled [9] - Long-term challenges include structural issues like high debt levels and trade deficits, which may limit the dollar's upside potential [9] - The competitive landscape in the international monetary system is intensifying, with other currencies potentially gaining attractiveness as global economic reforms progress [9]