金老虎：金老虎：黄金惊魂跳水，美联储搅局，今日反弹做空是陷阱？

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy expectations, leading to a complex market environment for investors [3][4]. Geopolitical Factors - A dramatic reversal of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel caused a rapid decline in gold prices from approximately $3,370 to $3,295, followed by a rebound to $3,226 due to renewed concerns over ongoing conflict [3]. - The long-term uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel, continues to support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks [3]. Federal Reserve Policy and Dollar Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates on June 24, along with an upward revision of core PCE inflation expectations to 3.1%, has heightened concerns about persistent high inflation, which typically boosts demand for gold as an inflation hedge [4]. - Despite a decline in the dollar index to 97.69, which usually supports gold prices, the market's risk appetite, influenced by geopolitical news, led to a drop in gold prices [4]. Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily gold price remains above a triangle breakout level, with a double bottom formation at the June 9 low, indicating a potential for a rebound [5]. - The upward trend support is identified at $3,294, and the market is expected to experience a rebound after the recent drop, with a potential target range for further corrections between $3,015 and $3,017 [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with MACD and KDJ showing downward trends, indicating that any rebounds may be followed by further declines [5].