蓝莓外汇BBMarkets：美联储未来12月或面临双向政策风险

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces dual policy risks of potential interest rate hikes or significant cuts in the next 12 months, with current market pricing reflecting only the baseline scenario [1][3] - The probability of an interest rate hike is assessed at around 15%, linked to Republican fiscal expansion and tariff transmission, with tariffs potentially driving inflation [1] - Current average tariffs on U.S. imports have reached the highest level since 1938 at 15%, indicating that price increases driven by tariffs have not fully materialized yet [1] Group 2 - The risk of interest rate cuts arises from a potential unexpected weakening in the labor market, which could lead to cuts exceeding the current Wall Street expectation of 100 basis points by the end of 2026 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that achieving a neutral interest rate would require "multiple rate cuts," but tariff policies may push inflation higher, creating a policy tension with calls for significant rate cuts [3] - The current federal funds rate has been maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for over six months, with market pricing indicating a delay in the first rate cut to September and a reduction in the total cut magnitude to 50 basis points for the year [3]