金价持续承压下行，市场波动机构建议审慎布局

Recent Gold Price Trends - Geopolitical conflicts have driven gold price volatility, with a spike to $3427 per ounce following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, marking a weekly increase of over 3.5% [1] - A ceasefire announcement by Trump on June 24 led to a 2% drop in gold price to $3295, the lowest in two weeks, with domestic gold jewelry prices decreasing by 8-15 yuan per gram [1] Technical Analysis - The key resistance level is at $3400, which is crucial for sustaining any upward momentum; support is identified at $3320, with potential declines to the $3250-$3290 range if breached [2] - A "head and shoulders" pattern is observed on the daily chart, with a critical neckline at $3380; failure to hold this level may trigger further declines [3] Core Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Middle East situation remains a short-term driver; a breakdown of the ceasefire could lead to a rapid rebound in gold prices, especially if risks in the Strait of Hormuz resurface, potentially increasing both oil and gold prices [4] - Central banks are expected to continue gold purchases, with reserves projected to account for 20% of global holdings by 2024, as emerging markets shift 60% of their gold purchases to replace U.S. Treasuries, providing structural support for long-term gold prices [4] Monetary Policy and Dollar Dynamics - Divergence in expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts exists; Powell emphasized the need for confirmed inflation decline before any cuts, which may pressure gold prices; however, Citi predicts that a rate cut in September could alleviate some pressure on gold [5] - A strong dollar typically suppresses gold prices, with the recent dollar index rebounding to 98.9, putting additional pressure on gold [6] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Institutional views are mixed, with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America bullish on gold reaching $4000 by 2026, while Citi is bearish, projecting a drop to $2300, reflecting market uncertainty [7] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings have increased, indicating some funds are positioning themselves to buy on dips [8] Investment Strategies and Market Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests a bearish outlook, with recommendations to short in the $3340-$3350 range, targeting $3320, and looking for a break below to $3290 [9] - Caution is advised for bottom-fishing below $3300, with a need to monitor Middle East developments and Federal Reserve statements for potential stabilization before considering long positions [9] Long-term Allocation Value - Gold is viewed as a strategic asset for inflation hedging and restructuring of the monetary credit system, with suggested allocation between 5%-15% [10] - Preferred investment vehicles include gold ETFs for their low entry barriers and strong liquidity, and physical gold for long-term holding, though storage costs and price spreads should be considered [11] Summary - The current gold market is characterized by "event-driven fluctuations," influenced by ceasefire agreements and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, while central bank purchases and long-term safe-haven demand provide ongoing support; investors are advised to operate flexibly based on technical levels (3320/3380) and news developments, with long-term holders encouraged to build positions gradually [13]