美联储资产负债表与铂金价格的非线性回归分析：探寻两者隐秘关联

Core Viewpoint - The article explores the complex non-linear relationship between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size and platinum prices, suggesting that traditional linear models may not adequately capture this dynamic [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion and contraction are crucial tools for implementing monetary policy, significantly impacting global financial markets [2]. - During periods of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded dramatically, injecting liquidity into the market and altering the supply-demand dynamics and risk preferences in financial markets [2]. Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum is viewed as a safe-haven asset and a store of value due to its unique industrial uses and scarcity, with its price influenced by various factors including global economic conditions, geopolitical risks, and overall market environment [2]. - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and platinum prices is expected to be non-linear, which is essential for understanding the price formation mechanism of platinum [2][3]. Group 3: Research Methodology - The study employs a non-linear regression model, specifically a polynomial regression model, to analyze the relationship between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size and platinum prices [6][7]. - Monthly data from 2008 to 2023 is utilized, with data sourced from the Federal Reserve's official website and the London Platinum and Palladium Market [7]. Group 4: Empirical Analysis - Descriptive statistics indicate volatility in both platinum prices and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size, particularly during quantitative easing periods [9]. - A third-degree polynomial regression model is identified as the optimal model, effectively capturing the non-linear relationship between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and platinum prices [10]. Group 5: Conclusions and Policy Recommendations - The findings reveal a significant non-linear relationship, where the initial expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet positively influences platinum prices, but this effect diminishes and eventually turns negative as the balance sheet grows [11]. - Investors are advised to monitor changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and adjust platinum investment strategies accordingly, while policymakers should consider the non-linear impacts of monetary policy on precious metal markets [12][13].